The transition will not happen instantaneously. According to forecasts, 70% of the cars will still be delivered with combustion engines by 2030. But this also means that almost 30% of new registrations will be e-vehicles, according to the scenario analysis compiled by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) on behalf of the Industrieverband Giesserei-Chemie (IVG) (Industry Association for Casting and Chemistry). In specific terms, this means that around 900,000 electric cars would be sold each year, while the production volume for combustion vehicles would fall from 3.2 million cars in 2016 to only 2.4 million.
The study director and CAM director Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel recommends suppliers to prepare appropriate adaptation and transformation strategies. This would include technological competence enhancements or industry diversification strategies beyond the auto industry. He expects that the changes in the market will gain momentum in the early 2020s.
Schaeffler is a supplier who has apparently already recognized the signs of the times. The company reported to Automobilwoche that it expects significant sales jumps for its newly founded Electromobility division. “If this area had already existed in 2017, it would have generated revenue in the range of 500 to 600 million euros,” estimated Automotive Director Matthias Zink .